Germany82%
Paraguay18%Most likely:Germany82%
Germany82%Live Probabilities
Precomputed from 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations for each locked Round of 32 matchup.
Precomputed from locked Round of 32 matchups on 2026-06-28.
Highest upset risk
Australia (48%)
Most balanced matchup
Australia vs Egypt (52%-48%)
Biggest favorite
Argentina (95%)
Live bracket
Simulate from completed Round of 32 results
Completed matches stay fixed; unfinished matches and later rounds run normally.
Monte Carlo bracket
Road to the Final
Scroll sideways to compare every path to the final
R32
Round of 32
8 matchesGermany82%Paraguay18%
France89%
Sweden11%Most likely:France89%
France89%
Canada78%
South Africa22%Most likely:Canada78%
Canada78%
Netherlands65%
Morocco35%Most likely:Netherlands65%
Netherlands65%
Portugal67%
Croatia33%Most likely:Portugal67%
Portugal67%
Spain82%
Austria18%Most likely:Spain82%
Spain82%
United States78%
Bosnia-Herzegovina22%Most likely:United States78%
United States78%
Belgium59%
Senegal41%Most likely:Belgium59%
Belgium59%R16
Round of 16
4 matchesUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
QF
Quarterfinals
2 matchesUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
SF
Semifinal
1 matchUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
FIFA World Cup 2026
Live Probabilities
F
Final
1 matchFinalChampion probability
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
SF
Semifinal
1 matchUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
QF
Quarterfinals
2 matchesUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
R16
Round of 16
4 matchesUndecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
Undecided
Undecided
Probability pending
R32
Round of 32
8 matches
Brazil75%
Japan25%Most likely:Brazil75%
Brazil75%
Ivory Coast35%
Norway65%Most likely:Norway65%
Norway65%
Mexico68%
Ecuador32%Most likely:Mexico68%
Mexico68%
England89%
Congo DR11%Most likely:England89%
England89%
Argentina95%
Cape Verde5%Most likely:Argentina95%
Argentina95%
Australia48%
Egypt52%Most likely:Egypt52%
Egypt52%
Switzerland67%
Algeria33%Most likely:Switzerland67%
Switzerland67%
Colombia74%
Ghana26%Most likely:Colombia74%
Colombia74%